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Is Anyone here interested in BlackJack?
11-25-2012, 03:04 PM (This post was last modified: 11-25-2012 03:05 PM by AliShibaz.)
Post: #1
Is Anyone here interested in BlackJack?
Recently, there was some discussion on another board to which I yam a member about Las Vegas and particularly the game of BlackJack.

Some years ago, I wrote a very serious program that is essentially a simulation of BlackJack and it proved to me that no matter what playing strategies or wagering strategies players employ, over the long run, in Las Vegas, the player can NEVER, EVER beat the house at BlackJack.

Anyway, here is the post I made on that other broad Smile


I once wrote a very thorough and very serious computer analysis and simulation of the game of Blackjack - specifically tailored for the game in Las Vegas.

It shows - without any doubt - that no matter what playing strategies or wagering strategies players employ, over the long run, in LV, the player can NEVER, EVER beat the house at BlackJack. I'm unsure about other locations. But my simulation is all over the LV game (meaning that it covers every conceivable angle. It enables players to set and change every option in the game (such as whether the dealer always hits a soft 17 or not).

Yes, it is always possible that I may have made some errors in writing this software. But the best thing about writing your own software, is that if you, in fact, make any errors, you can always correct those errors.

My simulation shows that players can come very close to breaking even - VERY, VERY close. But the key factor that always works in the house's advantage is this:

Even if you play perfect strategy, every time players make errors, no matter how large or small, the result is always an advantage for the house. It always results in the house making money and players losing money. It just cannot work any other way. Players can just NEVER, EVER overcome this factor.

This leads to an excellent policy, which is this: Anytime one player begins "riding" another player at a table, (meaning one player repeatedly verbally abuses another player), it is best to just stand up and leave - all the while saying nothing. IMO, it is always best for players to just keep their mouths shut.

In my opinion, the only way players can beat the house at BJ is to cheat. And, if you cheat, it is a virtual certainty that you will go to jail. Of this one thing, you may be certain: They do not play games in LV.

However, even having said all that, I truly love this game, and, if anyone here is interested in seeing this simulation and operating it for themselves, and is capable of writing software (in Delphi or C), I would be happy to show it to them and enable them to operate it for themselves.

However, there is one essential stipulation. If you cannot program your PC using either Delphi or C, then this would just be a complete waste of our time - both yours and mine. And in that case - please just forget it. It will lead to nothing but headaches and I can guarantee you that. If you are fluent in C, that is good enough because anyone fluent in C will be able to handle this without much trouble.

This simulation may have been written in Delphi. But any competent C programmer will be able to handle it without much trouble. However - please be advised that if you are serious about operating it, you will really need a Delphi 5.0 (or later) compiler.

If you would like to see it and operate it for yourelf, I would be happy to show it to you and I would not ask you for any money or anything else. You are perfectly welcome to it.

I promise you that using this simulation abolutely does not involve any cheating. However, if you wish to count cards, that is your affair and counting cards can only improve the results of anyone's game. When I played in LV, I always counted cards and I would never step foot into a casino unless I was prepared to count cards.
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Please be advised of this one last thing: This is a very serious piece of software and it will require a truly dedicated effort if you wish to fully understand it and operate for yourself. It is not difficult to master. But, it is not for the casual gadfly who thinks there is just nothing to it. There are no easy shortcuts involved in understanding this program. It is not terribly long. Nor is it terribly complex. Moreover, it is written using most of the modern methods of structured programming. So, be prepared. if you are serious about the game of BJ, and you are serious about wanting to master this simulation, it will pay off for you in many ways and will be an asset that will benefit you for a long time to come.
But you will need to be willing to put in the necessary work to understand it and to operate it successfully.
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11-25-2012, 03:34 PM
Post: #2
RE: Is Anyone here interested in BlackJack?
indeed....a simulation will never provide you with a winning strategy since a simulation is based on statistical probabilities and since the house always has better odds... they win.

"Yeah. I understand the mechanics of it, shithead. I just don't understand how this is any less retarded than what I'm suggesting." - Kiley; Housebound.
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11-25-2012, 06:41 PM (This post was last modified: 11-28-2012 08:00 PM by AliShibaz.)
Post: #3
RE: Is Anyone here interested in BlackJack?
Oh Manzo, Spork!

You sure are correct about that. You know, over the years there have been one or two people who wrote books explaining how to play BJ and how to use a winning strategy.

I think one such person's name was Ed Thorpe. Anyway, he made a lot of money selling that book and from what I recall, it was a very good book and was based on some very good info.

He worked for IBM and used computers to see what card combinations were best to play and then he wrote the most famous BJ book of all. It was called, "Beat the Dealer".

Anyway, I don't quite think he made millions. But, it's worth considering that some people (although very few) have made millions by instructing others how to play BJ. Moreover, some of them have made a great deal of money - not millions perhaps - but close.

The casinos - on the other hand - haven't made millions either. They have made freaking billions! Billions and billions and billions! Many, many billions! Billions that are coming out of their ears! Oh, fuck! Unbelievable!

So, I think that it's pretty clear who had the better strategy!

Anyway, seems like the most interesting thing about all of this is that Ed Thorpe then went on to develop these financial instruments called "Derivatives".

In any case, I think he finally did make billions. There was a huge scandal about those things around the same time that the US economy crashed. It was some kind of phoney way to tie the price of stocks to some imaginary numbers and brokers sold those things like crazy and everyone from every walk of life in American bought in and then promptly lost their shirts. Derivatives! They are called derivatives. And apparantly, Thorpe developed these formulas to tie together the value of stocks to the prices of these imaginary derivatives. What a beautiful scam! Oh, man! Some people have balls the size of Great Halls!

Can you imagine this Thorpe guy who developed derivatives? He basically is selling nothing - just a formula that says one bunch of stocks should be worth something, maybe? And, it's a formula that only he can understand. Is that good for a laff or what? These things basically caused the bankruptcy of the whole freaking country. Amazing! Just amazing! What a beauteous scam! Wowzer! Wowzer!

Years from now, people will ask what happened to the American economy. And ..... you can point to derivatives as the cause. And it all started as a result of Blackjack and Ed Thorpe's book on how to beat the dealer.

That was just amazing!!!

Anyway, it always seemed to me that derivatives were the one big answer to a question that no one asked. Except maybe Mr. Thorpe. He would have asked the question, "How can I make billions?"
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11-28-2012, 08:15 PM
Post: #4
RE: Is Anyone here interested in BlackJack?
you know, what if we team up and write a book and create some simulation software in regards to teaching people how to win with roulette's? i mean, statistically speaking; the odds are much better than anything else in vegas... just below 50/50...

the book would have to focus more on betting tactics rather than the statistics... that can just refer to the 'it happens in 3's' rule... you know?

we can charge about 3 dollars for the book and include the software as a free download for promotional purposes.

whadya think?

"Yeah. I understand the mechanics of it, shithead. I just don't understand how this is any less retarded than what I'm suggesting." - Kiley; Housebound.
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11-28-2012, 09:25 PM
Post: #5
RE: Is Anyone here interested in BlackJack?
i play blackjack on a regular basis on line,not for money though,i think i rather leave it up to chanceBig Grin

consistency is the hobdob
of small minds[
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12-03-2012, 04:14 AM (This post was last modified: 12-03-2012 04:24 AM by AliShibaz.)
Post: #6
RE: Is Anyone here interested in BlackJack?
Roulette? Oh my gosh!

I'm so sorry to disagree with you. But there is really no worse game to play in the casinos.

If you play in the USA, there are 36 number plus the zero and double zero - which means that you have one chance in 38 to hit a number and if you win, the casino pays off $36. That means if you were to always bet one dollar on the number "7" (for example), you would win $36 one time in 38. And you would lose $1 37 times in 38.

In Europe, there are only 37 numbers on the wheel (1 to 36 plus the zero) and so your odds are twice as good. But you only win $ 36 one time in 37.

Bottom line? When playing roulette, you expect to win less money than any other game in the casino. At least, that was the result I calculated the last time I performed such calculations.

Next time you step into a casino, just count the number of tables offering Roulette and then count the number of tables offering Blackjack or Craps. You will find there are approximately 10 or 20 tables offering Blackjack for every one table offering Roulette. The reason for that is that most people know the odds of winning in Roulette are approx 10 to 20 times less than the odds of winning in Blackjack. I don't know how they know this. I have tried to ask many people why they play Blackjack and not Roulette and strangely, almost none of them seem to have a reasonable explanation.

I don't know what the odds of winning the various casino games are today. They may have changed since time I last performed the calculations. Plus, it's impossible to know what the odds are when it comes to slot machines or other similar machines because the way they work are hidden from the public. And so, it amazes me that so many people flock to those games. It's kind of like standing in front of a stranger and telling them, "If you give me $10, I will give you some money back. I won't tell you how much I will give you. It will just have to be a surprise. Want to play?" Amazingly, so many people go for it. Can you figure out why? Neither can I.

But if you ever saw the following American movies that starred James Garner:

"Support Your Local Sherrif" 1969 or "Support Your Local Gunfighter" 1971

In one of those films (I believe it may have been the first one), he is asked if he'd like to play some Roulette, and he angrily shouts out something like the following:

"Roulette? A person would have to be freaking crazy to play that game. Don't you know that is the worst freaking game a person can play in a casino? Don't you ever ask me again if I want to play freaking that game."

It may have sounded funny. But the underlying mathematics were quite sound. The game is so extremely simple to understand because it is truly the worst game a person could play in a casino. It has the lowest odds of winning. Absolutely and extremely the lowest odds of any casino game.

I wish I had the time to show you the underlying math. But I just can't take the time right now to do that. But, I'm sure that you can find an explanation somewhere online. And if you can, I sure would appreciate if you would post it here. I would like to see it.
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12-03-2012, 10:25 AM
Post: #7
RE: Is Anyone here interested in BlackJack?
ali... there is a flaw in your logc:

you are assuming that you must bet a single number (1 of 38... 2.7% chance of winning)...

you should only only bet red, black, even, odd or certain spreads ( 18 of 38... 47% chance of winning)...

the reason a casino has more black jack tables than roulette tables is that they can make more money on black jack since statistically, it is harder to win at blackjack than it is at roulette and therefore, offers greater odds to the house.
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12-03-2012, 11:30 AM (This post was last modified: 12-03-2012 11:31 AM by AliShibaz.)
Post: #8
RE: Is Anyone here interested in BlackJack?
I understand the odds at Roulette and they are exactlyl the same whether you bet red or black or even or odd or a single number.

You still can expect to lose the exact same amount of money. Talking over the long run of course.

If one of those bets was more profitable, you can bet that most people would know that (probably cuz a friend would tell them or they would read it in a book written by a knowledgeable player of the game) and you would almost never see anyone betting on a single number. But you see it all the time.

The reason is that for every dollar you wager at a roulette table, you can expect to get about 98 cents return. It matters not how you wager. It makes not difference at all. The winning odds are always proportional in the exact same way.

I wish I had the time to demonstrate the math. But I'm sure you can find someone who has explained it all somewhere on the net.

If you can't, then I will try to find the time to do the math. But I'm sure you will be able to find some site that has already done it.

P.S. I could be wrong. In which case I will apologize. It certainly has happened enough times before.
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12-03-2012, 12:51 PM
Post: #9
RE: Is Anyone here interested in BlackJack?
that's why they call it gambling, ali.

if you only focus on the statistics, it's easy to understand that no matter what game you play, the house always has the advantage. the house would never offer the players anything that would cost them money because that is bad business.

47% are the best odds you are going to find at a casino. if you just focus on the math, you will see that the probability factor relies heavily only on what is statistically probable and not what is actually probable. for example:

so, the vast majority of people in casinos are total morons... we all understand that. but, every so often, you see someone that will take the 50/50 black/red/even/odd bet instead of the coked-up lunatic long haul truck driver that takes the 1300/1 odds and bet's red 3.

the other important factor is budgeting your bets which is a point that a lot of people miss and why most people lose everything. you determine how much you are willing to wager and how far you will go. example:

i usually start off with $2,000 at the table session and i determine when it is time to stop when i double my money.

the bets are small ($20-50) and it usually takes about 3 hours to double my money during that session... which works out great because when i go back to the table, my $2,000 plus the houses $1,000 is safely in my bank and the remaining $1,000 is back on the table in the same fashion as when i started; i am now in a position to not lose anything so now over the next 6 hours, i expect to quadruple that $1,000 and the only tool i am going to use are small bets, the randomness of human nature, smart wagering tactics and the principle of '3.'

3 = everything happens in three's.
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12-03-2012, 07:06 PM
Post: #10
RE: Is Anyone here interested in BlackJack?
I'm happy you understand that you need to quit while your ahead. That is something I always do.

After all, quitting while you are ahead is the only way to win.

And the only alternative is going broke. So, congratulations! You are on the winning side.
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